I haven’t talked a lot about trading this year because, well, there’s hasn’t been a lot of trading. In fact, for most traders this has either been a year of HELL or a year of NOTHING.
As they say in Bridge, let’s review the bidding:
1. For breakout traders, this has been the year of zilch. Most breakout traders use volume surges as an indicator, and volume this year has been pitiful. In fact, QQQ only today, recently moved above its 50 day moving average. Of course, now the index is so overbought that any new long position is way too risky….
2. For contrarian traders, it’s been a train wreck. Sure everything is overbought, and the logical trade is to go short. Ask the folks who shorted AAPL at $500 how that’s going.
3. For dip buyers, it’s been famine. One aspect of my own trading is dip buying. I’ve had four trades so far this year. Four. Last year I had over 100.
4. Buy and hold. For those Warren Buffet types, it has been a wonderful year. Truly. I mean, just buy anything and it goes up. Can’t wait for the Apple-only long hedge fund to shout how it’s KILLING IT this year.
But, I’ve gone through periods like this before. Frankly, they suck.