Maybe ’12 will be a GREAT year for the market

by gbsmith4

The 2012 market forecasts have started pouring in from the pundits and by-and-large, they’re fairly negative.

It’s Euro-this, debt-that, gridlock here, deficits there.  Or maybe it’s downgrades, the sinking dollar, a crisis du jour, and etc, etc, ad nauseum.   Oh, and your house?  It’ll be worth nothing!

All in all, it can all be pretty much summed up by the predictably downbeat Paul Farrell:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-decade-from-hell-will-get-worse-in-2012-2011-12-13

Now, I’m no pollyanna, but almost nowhere do I read where 2012 could be a terrific year for the market.  I mean, based on the forecasts I read, there’s pretty much a 0% chance the market will go up.

And it’s usually in cases like that — student body left — that the market goes right.  The “black swan” event no one sees coming.

At heart, I’m a trader who tries to adjust for whatever the market throws at me.  But, if I had to guess, I think conventional wisdom again has it wrong: 2012 is going to be a pretty good year.

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